Reflections on the German elections

The first time that I actively followed the German elections was in 1998, says Mark Bergfeld. I was eleven years old. I was glued to the television following the debates and speeches by politicians. One politician struck me particularly: Gregor Gysi. My eleven-year old self went back to school the following day and proudly proclaimed that Gysi was the best politician Germany had seen. My politics teacher  foamed at his mouth like a rabid dog. Gysi was un-democratic and dangerous, my teacher insisted. A few years later when I stood as a candidate for Die Linke, I was barred from the same school’s plenary debate. I was deemed un-democratic and dangerous. Today, Gysi’s party, die Linke – the German Left Party – is the third strongest party in the German Bundestag. He will lead the opposition to a grand coalition from the left.

Only a few months ago this would have been unimaginable. Die Linke has had different problems to contend with. Lack of struggle, strategic disorientation and internalized debates have hampered the party’s growth since the last elections. In many West German federal states, it hadn’t succeeded in entering the parliaments. Its vote of 8.5 per cent consolidates its presence in the German political landscape despite the loss of roughly 3 per cent points from 2009. Leading members and activists of Die Linke regard this as a success – not a setback. Gysi underscored this: “Who would have thought in 1990 that this party would be the third strongest force in Germany?” No one. More so, it was unthinkable that a party to the left of the SPD would push the entire political spectrum leftwards; even forcing Chancellor Merkel to campaign for the minimum wage!

Unlike her conservative counterparts across Europe and the US who invoke fear – Islamophobia, homophobia et al. – to win popular support, Merkel redefines conservative populism. In the course of the last four years Merkel was able to dominate by right of personality and compensated for all the coalition’s political weaknesses. She is the true victor of these elections. The CDU’s 41 per cent – the best result for the CDU since 1994 – belong to her.  But coalitions are not built on Merkel’s popularity alone. The big loser of these elections is the neo-liberal FDP. The CDU’s junior coalition partner didn’t surpass the five per cent hurdle and will no longer be represented in parliament. Christian Lindner of the FDP told ARD: “This is the darkest hour of the FDP since 1949”.

If there’s one thing which unites the SPD, Greens and Die Linke – who hold a small majority – it is the feeling of Schadenfreude at the FDP’s demise.

However it remains at that. The SPD and Greens slavishly continue to argue and vote for the CDU’s policies. After the nuclear disaster at Fukushima, the Greens polled up to 24 per cent in June 2011. On Sunday they only won a bit more than eight per cent of the popular vote. Their turn from ecological questions to social questions was detrimental to their success. Especially their proposal for higher taxes upset their own clientel – the highest-earners among all German voters. On the surface it appears that the SPD has learnt a lesson or two after leaving government in 2009. They campaigned on the issues of youth unemployment, higher taxation, and poverty amongst pensioners. Yet throughout the last four years, the SPD was in a de facto coalition with the CDU. There wasn’t a single important vote which the SPD voted against. It is no surprise that former Finance Minister and member of Die Linke Oskar Lafontaine called Germany a “one-party system”.

A CDU-SPD grand coalition is the certain outcome. It will provide Germany with much-needed stability in a crisis-ridden Europe. Low growth rates in the center of the European Union (EU) and continued recession in the periphery could grind Germany’s export-economy to a halt sooner than later. A CDU-SPD coalition will be able to count on support from trade unions. Since the start of the crisis they have put wage increases in the export sector on the back burner. This was aptly labeled “Krisenkooperatismus.” It’s a product of the regional economic policy (“Standortlogik”) which German trade unions are likely to pursue. Despite this policy there have been a growing number of strikes in retail shops such as H&M, Esprit, Burger King and others. Verdi, one of Germany’s largest trade unions, has also organised a pay campaign of amazon.de workers. It is questionable though whether these small industrial disputes can turn the tide.

A worrying trend is the AfD’s (Alternative für Deutschland) result. They won approximately 4.8 per cent of the vote. This right-wing populist party describes itself “as neither left nor right wing” yet it has not distanced itself from known fascists within its ranks. It is to be seen whether the party can maintain itself for the next seven months up until the Euro elections next year. The fact that the AfD stole votes from all parliamentary parties shows that its base consists of so-called “protest voters”.  After the Pirates declined just as quickly as they rose I am careful to make any predictions about the future of new anti-politics formations like the AfD or the Pirates.

There is one prediction I can definitely make: Merkel’s re-election is no safeguard for prosperity. If the Treaty of Maastricht is synonymous with the neoliberal Europe, Merkel’s name will become synonymous with the break-up of Europe. Millions of southern European workers have had their democracy stolen. They have no say in who takes office in Berlin, yet they live under the directives of Merkel, via the EU and the ECB.Unemployed Spanish and Greek youths are just collateral damage in the project of building a powerhouse amidst indebted economies and failed states. If I could ever have a word with my teachers back in Germany, I would make sure to let them know that it’s Merkel who has created a Europe which is un-democratic and dangerous.

My previous articles on the German elections can be read here:

The many faces of Frau Merkel (Al-Jazeera English)

Another status quo election in Germany?